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EPISODE 102 DETAILS

Slow Beef Cattle Herd Rebuilding In 2025

The Slow Cattle Cycle Of 2025

Cattle producers, consumers, and policymakers are all asking the same questions: How high will cattle prices go, when will they peak, and what happens next? The reality is that the cattle cycle remains uncertain, with no clear sign yet of a bottom in herd inventories or a timeline for rebuilding.

Through the first three quarters of 2025, there’s been no strong evidence of heifer retention. The mid-year Cattle Report showed the lowest beef replacement heifer inventory on record, and the 2025 U.S. calf crop is projected to be the smallest since 1941. Feeder cattle supplies outside of feedlots are also at historic lows.

While beef cow slaughter is down roughly 40% since 2022, stabilizing the herd, limited replacement heifers — down about 27% from the 2017 peak — mean herd growth in 2026–2027 will be slow.

Experts project cattle prices to keep climbing into 2026 and possibly beyond, with a gradual peak and sustained strength through the decade. A sharp drop appears unlikely, but the pace of herd rebuilding and heifer retention will determine how the market unfolds.

Bottom line: The U.S. beef industry is on a slow rebuild, and cattle prices are expected to remain historically high for years to come.

REFERENCES:

https://meatingplace.com/the-slow-cattle-cycle-timeline-peel/

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